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Regional Election Results Reveal the Dire State Democracy in Italy

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Last weekend, elections were held in two of Italy’s regions – Emilia-Romagna in Italy’s north and Calabria in the nation’s south. The results of these elections are significant not so much for the victories as for the exceptionally low voter turnout which indicate just how chronically ill democracy in Italy really is.

In both of these regions voter turnout was lower than 50%. In the case of the Emilia-Romagna region, much lower as a mere 37.7% of those who could have voted actually did. Voter turnout in Calabria was a little better, though at 43.8% it was well short of 50%.

The gravity of the fall in voter turnout becomes more evident when compared to turnout figures during previous elections in the same regions.

In the last regional elections in Italy’s Emilia-Romagna region, voter turnout was 68.1%, while in Calabria, the voter turnout figure for elections held in 2010 was 59%.

Voter turnout in Emilia-Romagna fell by nearly 50%. Once upon a time Emilia-Romagna was, until the result of the recent elections became known, a leftwing stronghold in Italy. It is no more it seems, even if what passes for Italy’s left nowadays did manage to scrape a victory.

This time round, Calabria which in the past has tended to err to Italy’s political right, swung to the left though only 43.8% of voters turned out to cast their votes.

A, Pyrrhic, Victory for Mr Renzi

In both regions candidates proposed by the center-left party of Italy’s premier Matteo Renzi were elected. While the elections are technically valid one wonders whether, in view of the low voter turnout, they should be declared null and void even if this will not happen.

While Italy’s Prime Minister Matteo Renzi is hailing the regional election results as a victory for his party, even he must be concerned at the low voter turnout which indicates that the majority of voters simply do not find him or his policies convincing. The result in Emilia-Romagna in particular shows that the area’s voters really have no idea who to vote for or else they have realized (finally) that voting makes very little difference to how Italy is run.

Matteo Renzi man Stefano Bonaccini is now the new president of Emilia-Romagna and in Calabria, the regional presidency goes to Gerardo Mario Oliverio, also a Renzi man.

How Well did the Other Parties Do?

In Emilia-Romagna, Silvio Berlusconi’s reborn Forza Italia party was beaten by the Lega Nord party which scooped up 19.42% of the votes compared to Forza Italia’s 8.36%. Beppe Grillo’s Five Star Movement beat Berlusconi’s party earning itself 13.26% of the vote.

Down in Calabria, 12.33% of voters chose Berlusconi’s Forza Italia party. A total of 23.44% voted for the three party coalition group of which Forza Italia is part. Grillo’s 5 Star Movement faired badly as it only managed to scrape 4.89% of the vote in Calabria.

What Do the Results Say About the State of Democracy in Italy?

From the results, it is clear that democracy Italian is chronically ill. The exceptionally low turnouts demonstrate that Italians have just about lost all faith in their political leaders. This is no surprise as the parties seeking election have contributed to the economic mess Italy finds itself in today. Italians may finally be tiring of the endless promises of change which result in nothing, or in the Italian way, everything changing so nothing really does.

The result of this approach to managing Italy is starkly clear as this graphic showing Italy’s GDP from 1980 to 2014 illustrates:

italy GDP 10 Year Moving Average
italy GDP 10 Year Moving Average

Ostensibly, the same people who were not able to prevent and most probably contributed to Italy’s economic decline are still in power today. This does not bode well, as at least some Italians are realizing.

Just how badly Italy is administered becomes even more evident when the nation’s economy is compared to other G7 nations:

Italy GDP Comparison chart
Italy GDP Comparison chart

Renzi’s Approach is Wrong

The regional election results also highlight that the approach of Premier Matteo Renzi to sorting out Italy’s problems is not working. Moreover, he has not, as promised, scrapped the old political class, nor does he even seem to be attempting to do so. Mr Renzi’s other reform proposals are lackluster and vague to say the least.

While Italy’s Prime Minister is supposedly working to stamp out the Italian disease of corruption, it’s very hard to understand whether anything concrete is being achieved.  Tales of the corrupt antics of Italy’s politicians are still appearing virtually daily in Italy’s press. Punishments for the corrupt are nothing short of derisory – the direct consequence of ‘reform’ Italian style.

That fewer and fewer Italians are finding Mr Renzi convincing is clear from the Emilia-Romagna result. What is also clear is that left-leaning Italian voters are not at all certain Italy’s political left exists anymore. Who will Italy’s left-leaning citizens vote for now? Who knows. There is no alternative at all. Zero

What Italy Needs

Italy needs a new political party or two – parties led by competent individuals of great integrity. There is, alas, no sign at all of any such individuals or parties emerging. While the 5 Star Movement showed some initial promise, the perception in Italy is that allowing the Movement to run Italy would create more problems than it would solve. As a result of this impression, it is unlikely that the 5 Star Movement will ever end up in power.

For now, this Italy watcher fears, Italy’s decline is likely to continue.

Thanks to reader John Castle, I’ve come across this 2011 BBC Hard Talk interview with Italian radical party member Emma Bonino who admitted at that time that democracy was in trouble in Italy, indeed, Ms Bonino went as far as admitting that there’s no democracy in Italy. If you can find a spare half an hour, the interview is worth watching:

Now, how much is a plane ticket to the UK these days? Yes, it’s that bad folks.

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Comments

  1. John castle says

    I didn’t call you a berlusconi supporter.

    For someone who hates to repeat themselves you do it a hell of a lot. And this is going to go on and on so I’ll leave you to it.

    All the best to Alex

  2. John Castle says

    Clear to me that you were slagging off aurelio – one only needs to look at the tone of your posts.

    >>I know that your usual response when Italians react to your mockeries are “That was just a provocation” “You don’t understand sarcasm”

    I am afraid that you have blown your cover there – this says far more about you than Alex. The “provocation” excuse and claim that someone was just joking appears rather common in Italy. Berlusconi has made good use of it. Along with several people after frankly racist comments.

    I have read rather a lot of Alex’s blog and NEVER remember him saying something as a sarcastic provocation. If I had read such a thing I would surely have remembered for I despise such “provocations” as infantile. Once I see that anyone is doing that, or claiming to, I find someone else to talk to. It’s not worth me engaging my brain or soul with them. Alex’s posts are clearly heartfelt. I fear it says something about you that you appear incapable of recognising this,

    >> but until you won’t learn to respect your host country, even when you’re criticizing it, then you won’t have respect in return, I’m sorry.

    mm – not sure you recognise people’s right to free debate, which inevitably will include criticism sometimes. Your “argument” if I can call it that reminds me of the suggestion hurled at Brit lefty liberals (me) during the 80s by some particularly childish rather more right-wing individuals – “well if you don’t like it why don’t you go to East Germany”! Which left one speechless. They clearly understood nothing of democracy.

    An Italian on Italian democracy from a few years ago:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ry3S5BunZfE

    Things somewhat more serious since then.

    • aurelio says

      I am afraid that you have blown your cover there – this says far more about you than Alex. The “provocation” excuse and claim that someone was just joking appears rather common in Italy. Berlusconi has made good use of it. Along with several people after frankly racist comments. – See more at: https://italychronicles.com/troubled-democracy-italy/#comments

      Reread my comment. I hate to repeat myself.

      And please, try to cut this old habit of calling everyone who disagrees with your views a Berlusconi supporter.

  3. Michael Pope says

    Great article, great comments. Cultural collapse is right on the money, aurelio on the other hand is not, showing the traits of denial that has landed Italy where it is presently. If only the challenges that are facing Italy could be solved by the discussions that occur in most Bars the length and bredth of the country, then the future would look rosy!! If voter turn out in these two regions are anything to judge by then talking about it is easy, doing something about it (let’s for argument sake say voting) is a little more challenging!
    Italians, (citizens, business as well as political and administrative leaders) must look at what is happening in the present, in the outside world. If something isn’t working it needs changing? Einstein said “We can’t solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them.” But then Einstein wasn’t Italian so what would he know?
    Young, vibrant, aspirational intellectual Italians are voting with their feet, and the votes are being cast through the departure lounges at airports all over Italy!!!

    • Alex Roe says

      Hi Michael, good to hear you found both the article and the comments interesting. aurelio is in a state of denial though even he admits he’s not optimistic, so he knows something is wrong but it’s not voter turnout which indicates problems with democracy in Italy or a cultural breakdown.

      Einstein was indeed a very bright guy: “We can’t solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them.” – that’s Italy’s problem in a nutshell, I’d say. Italy is still using the same old thinking and it’s not getting Italy far at all. But hey, as you say, Einstein wasn’t Italian, so his opinion doesn’t count 😉

      I know all about bright young Italians escaping from Italy and cannot understand why Italy is doing so little to prevent it from happening. Maybe the forthcoming Jobs Act reform will keep some Italians here, but I’m not too sure it will, especially if it depresses Italy’s already low pay levels even further.

      Some Italians find a way back to Italy and manage to earn a good salary because they work for non-Italian firms abroad and then get moved to Italy. I’ve heard stories of Italian businesses offering Italians who want to return to Italy utterly derisory salaries which, of course, mean the Italian concerned stays away from Italy.

      Apparently Italy’s pre-crisis 7% unemployment rate was OK in aurelio’s eyes (!)

      Still, where there’s life, there’s hope.

      Best,

      Alex

  4. John castle says

    Perhaps aurelio, rather than slagging off alex (who it is clear from his blog loves italy and grieves for it) might like to explain why so many young Italians are leaving.

    Or is that exodus just nasty foreign propaganda?

    • Alex Roe says

      Hi John, thanks for the defense – aurelio is one of those Italians who from time to time land upon one or two of my more provocative pieces without having bothered to read much else here, alas.

      I think the GDP figures (and election turnout numbers) more or less speak for themselves and indicate Italy has a problem but aurelio, like quite a number of Italians, has his head stuck in the sand and won’t acknowledge it. In doing so, he’s become part of the problem.

      Over the years, Italians have asked me why the heck I bother to stay in Italy. I was optimistic, but that’s fading, I’m afraid. How I wish Italy would get its act together.

      Cheers,

      Alex

    • aurelio says

      I’m not slagging off anyone, I’m providing data. Young Italians are leaving along with Spaniards, Greeks and Portugueses due to the economic crisis, no one is denying that. But saying that the only economic data you have to consider are GDP and public debt and that a low electoral turnout is the proof of a nonexistent democracy is deeply biased and is complete nonsense. I couldn’t care less if you or the author of this blog love or hate Italy, what I care for is an objective and unbiased analysis, something that doesn’t exist here.

      I know that your usual response when Italians react to your mockeries are “That was just a provocation” “You don’t understand sarcasm” “But I do love Italy” but until you won’t learn to respect your host country, even when you’re criticizing it, then you won’t have respect in return, I’m sorry.

      Listen to those Italians who asked you why you stay in Italy. Leave tomorrow.

      • Michael Pope says

        Really? And may I ask Why is the crisis so profound in Italy, Spain, Greece and Portugal that is causing the departure of the young?

      • Alex Roe says

        Some of those Italians can’t believe I stay in Italy because they don’t want to. I’ve lost count of the number of young Italians I’ve met who want to leave Italy because they feel they are going to get nowhere at all by staying here – which is, alas, the truth. Admittedly, some young Italians, and their parents, have higher than realistic expectations (not my opinion, but the opinions of a manager in a large multinational in Italy and one Fornero)

        But you are right, I should have listened to those Italians who hinted that I was wasting my time staying in Italy. Quite frankly, I couldn’t believe I was hearing what I did – but that’s how low Italy has sunk – though you seem incapable of understanding this. How sad.

        By the way, if you read more here, you’d understand that I have enormous respect for Italy – indeed, I wish Italy had as much respect for itself as I do for Italy. But, if you do not respect yourself, you end up losing respect.

  5. Cultural collapse says

    Beppe Grillo has began wearing “italian style” clothes – quite the curious transformation – in an attempt to be taken seriously by italians, and it will work to a small extent, probably not sufficiently to lift the fate of this nation.

    But when clothes are taken so seriously and get in the way of listening to the content, the fight is pointless – its not worth it. Ignorance has taken over, and the insignificant has trumped the significant.

    The italian COMMON people and their general ignorant and backwards mentality – and make me add, petty POSH pseudo materialistic mentality – are the obvious reason for the downfall of the democracy. Politicians are just common people like the others, they perfectly rapresent the common people. When people say they dont feel rapresented by them i get mad. Renzi PERFECTLY mirrors that kind of vacuous italian Italy has plenty of – basically, big momma boys who havent grown up and play the adult part not very well.

    Italian big babies give waaaaay too much importance to comfort, luxury and money (and appearances/clothes) – the illness is called materialism, italians do it the stupid way (ie, theyre not as competent as americans or northern europeans in the art of “making money”, in general – few exceptions are) and the universe doesnt give a crap. Italians seem to think that the universe rewards vanity and selfishness and entitles those who practice it “the best people”. it doesn’t. Usually it punishes it, here on this world. The collective selfishness of italians is the direct cause of their collective downfall.

    People need to get back to learning the basics of the laws of the universe and the human condition as traditionally known by humans. Vanity, that kind of pride and narcissism arent rewarded and loved by life, never have been and never will. One can’t do whatever he wants, in inconsideration of others, without ill consequences. its obvious, but look at ignorant italians and people living like it werent true. Life constantly warns and punishes them but they dont get a clue. They’re in some kind of stupor and obviously the media are at play in generating it.

    this is obviously a moral and cultural sickness going on, and the political situation just an symptom. We should all well leave Italy, and should a while ago, because the ATMOSPHERE of the place is foul, due to its “spiritual” and cultural corruption. In a nutshell, most italians are now stupid and fully ignorant and its ugly and depressing to stay between them.

    • Alex Roe says

      Yes, as you have obviously understood, Italy is comatose – yet it doesn’t realize it. Terrible pity, it has lots of potential but seems to be completely incapable of fulfilling it. Some Italians have given up on Italy and are leaving – but they do miss Italy.

      Not all Italians are “stupid and fully ignorant” as you put it but the public face of Italy, alas, is all too often that of those kinds of Italians.

      Odd nation. Maybe it’s to be suffering from some kind of collective mental health issue? 😉

      Best,

      Alex

  6. Stephen says

    So the voters have just turned off. Punch drunk with no hope battleship Italia can be turned around. You get the feeling that fired up Renzi is getting sucked into the vortex. I still have to believe its Renzi or the plughole.

    Meanwhile, I’m told big London based real estate mob Savills is reporting a big increase in website hits for Italian real estate. Sounds contradictory, right? Sometimes strange things happen when things are at rock bottom.

    • Alex Roe says

      Well, I hoped Renzi might prevent the decline but, quite frankly, I doubt it. Don’t think he can move fast enough to close the plughole and his policies are not particularly inspiring either. Still, Italy will remain a nice holiday destination (unless the great Italian climate becomes not so great – another little problem).

      Yes, I’d heard that wealthy Italians are buying up expensive London real estate. I think we can guess why – an attempt to isolate themselves from a feared economic meltdown. Something nasty could happen in 2015 in terms of Italy’s debt mountain catching up with it. We’ll see – but the wealthy do see to think there’s cause for concern.

      Strange things can have either positive or negative effects. Time, as always, will tell. Without ECB assistance, Italy would be underwater.

      Best,

      Alex

      • Stephen says

        Sorry, Alex, I meant Savills are getting more enquiries from England for property in Tuscany or Italy. That’s what’s counter intuitive.

        ps – don’t let aurelio get you down!

        • Alex Roe says

          Ah. Misunderstood you. Well, Italy is still very pretty and prices in Tuscany may be coming down a little make it more attractive. Also suggests UK economy not doing too badly, at least for some.

          aurelio won’t get me down – he or she is in a bit of a minority! 😉 Still, if he can prove me wrong, fine by me.

      • aurelio says

        Check the private savings level, private debt level, the primary surplus, the level of exports, the real estate property (85% of the houses are owned by Italians), and the fact that the national debt is for its 70% in the Italians’ hands.
        Anyway, stick with the side of the story which is more convenient for your purpose, and join those young Italians in leaving!

        • Alex Roe says

          Private savings are high but being eroded – Italians cannot save as much as in the past. Primary surplus is OK, but national debt is at a dangerously high level, as you will know. By private hands, you include banks and the Bank of Italy and the stability Italy’s banks is questionable.

          Hopefully you’ve seen this: http://www.ioamolitalia.it/blogs/vivere-senza-l-euro/cronaca-di-un-disastro-annunciato-il-90-del-debito-pubblico-e-in-mano-alle-banche-ma-lo-stato-si-accannisce-contro-imprese-e-famiglie.html

          The Bank of Italy didn’t do a great job when it came to keeping an eye on MPS, now did it?

          Exports are growing but are still far lower than they should be. Why Italy has never pushed hard on the export front, I’ll never know. It’s starting to happen now. Better late than never, but it might be too late.

          Owning your own house is good – provided you can afford to run it and with no jobs and having to support jobless family members, running houses is becoming costly. You will be aware the demand in Italy is very low and that the economy is still not going anywhere aside from downhill. Education system does not produce the right people for jobs.

          Hopefully, though I doubt it, you read Il Fatto Quotidiano and watch Report.

          • aurelio says

            Hahahahahahaha Magdi Cristiano Allam???
            Do I even need to answer you?
            Anyway, all you need to know: private savings are more than twice the national GDP, and the banks with questionable stability are just one. Don’t even get me started on the way stress tests are conducted. Exports are good and will grow when Russia will be free of sanctions. And education system will produce right people for jobs when there will be jobs, in 2007 unemployment was at 7% with the same education system.
            Il Fatto Quotidiano and Report are two good and reliable sources of information, not the only ones though.
            Saluti

          • Alex Roe says

            Ha ha ha ha – stress tests can only be as reliable as the data used and if Italy’s banks have been supplying false data or keeping information back as in the case of MPS, then maybe Italy’s banks are not as solid as you are led to believe. Think about that.

            Considering its potential, Italy’s exports are far too low. There’s more to the world than just Russia, you know. Education system is not producing the right people for modern jobs – hence the shortfall. 7% was not low. Crisis has shown just how weak Italy is.

            Now tell me, why can Italy only attract half as many tourists as France?

            At least you are optimistic! Heaven knows why.

            Cheers.

          • aurelio says

            The stress tests you’re so crazy in love with:
            http://www.forexinfo.it/Banche-Ecco-perche-gli-stress-test
            That said, I would have let MPS fail three years ago.
            Let’s get back Russia and his billionaires between our commercial partners, then we will think about Malaysia and Micronesia.
            The shortfall of the employment is due to the fact that business companies don’t have orders because people are not consuming, taxes are too high so they can’t hire. It’s not that difficult to understand.

            I’m not optimistic, I’m just annoyed by misinformation and poor Italy-bashing.

          • Alex Roe says

            Oh, I’m not in love with stress tests! I kind of hope they are realistic but, like you, cannot be sure they are.

            By all accounts, MPS should have gone under three years ago – but it was kept afloat. Seems the Bank of Italy didn’t act when it should have and CONSOB kept rather quiet too.

            Potential markets for Italian goods? Everywhere, not just Russia (which an Italian client of mine tells me is a difficult place to do business in) Especially developing nations with emerging wealthy classes. There’s lots of interest in Italian goods in China.

            And why are taxes so high? Because Italy is run so badly and because of corruption. And taxes are not easy to pay here either!

            Actually, I don’t like Italy bashing and do it out of frustration caused by Italy’s total inability to realize its potential – owing, in part at least, to the dire state of what Italy defines as democracy. Get good leaders and Italy will fly (if it isn’t too late and I hope it isn’t).

            Decent quality internet in Italy rural areas could have helped generate work (and could help develop tourism too – treat tourists right and they’ll buy Italian goods long after they return home). Italy’s politicians are too old to understand how much the www could help Italy.

            Marchionne didn’t leave Italy for nothing.

            Italy could defend itself better from Italy bashing. Why doesn’t it?

    • Alex Roe says

      Thanks for the encouragement Aurelio – you are probably one of the many reasons why Italy is dead in the water and also the reason why so many Italians are leaving Italy too. Not hard to understand why you are the way you are seeing as Italy tops ignorance indexes 😉

      How about you buying me that ticket?

      Alex

      • aurelio says

        Hahahahaha you keep repeating this “you’re probably are one of the reasons why Italy is …” monotone to anyone who disagrees with your sloppy Italy-bashing propaganda.
        Anyway, check your incomplete economic data or you will double me in the ignorance index.

        Oh, and how many tickets do you want? Just one for you or a hundred for your army of nonexistent followers and subscribers?

        • Alex Roe says

          Oh dear. Bad day? Come on – give me some economic data and show me I’m wrong about Italy going down the plughole – if you can that is 😉

          You might get quite a few other takers for those tickets – young Italians would queue up for them!

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