Sparks are flying right, left, centre and everywhere in the confusingly complex and chaotic world of Italian politics.
Last week, the speaker of Italy’s senate overruled a decision not to pursue a civil action for damages against Silvio Berlusconi in connection with allegations that he’d bribed a senator. This caused much annoyance in Berlusconi Forza Italia party circles even if time barring provisions in Italian law will probably mean the case is unlikely to reach a conclusion. Despite this, the fact that the senate speaker decided to file a case against their leader led to calls for the speaker’s resignation. Upholding the law is not at all popular in Italy.
Hot on the heels of the senate civil action, Berlusconi’s people were rather unhappy to hear claims that their leader had been ousted in late 2011 as a result of a kind of plot to have him removed. Central to the plot theory is the suspicion that Italy’s President Napolitano had been lining up Mario Monti to take over from Berlusconi a few months before he was ‘deposed’. It has long been suspected that Berlusconi’s demise had been engineered, though there had been little proof.
UPDATE: 12 February, 2014 – Rumours flying around Italy’s press suggest that moves are afoot to replace Italy’s prime minister Enrico Letta with PD party leader Matteo Renzi.
Italy’s president has apparently given his blessing to the change-over, though Letta is proving reluctant to give up Italy’s helm. To save his skin, today Letta will attempt to convince the coalition government he leads that he has concrete plans for the future. Many believe, though, that it’s only a matter of time before he’s ousted in favour of Renzi. If Renzi does end up leading Italy’s government he’ll be the third unelected leader since Silvio Berlusconi was deposed in late 2011.
Renzi, should he end up in charge, will attempt to set the reform ball rolling – something none of his predecessors have been able to do.
News of the change over, or not, should come out either today or within a week or so.
Update end.
Theories A Go-Go
One theory floating around was that the EU requested Berlusconi’s removal on the basis that his mismanagement of Italy could have toppled Italy’s economy into an abyss and that Europe’s and, maybe, the world’s economy could have gone belly up as a consequence.
Another conspiracy theory, which is covered by the Zero Hedge site, claims that Berlusconi was brought down in a kind of bloodless coup engineered by conspiratorial bankers – many of whom, such as Mario Monti, ECB boss Mario Draghi, appear to have belonged to the Goldman Sachs clan.
Yet another theory; yes, there are a few, goes that Italy’s President Napolitano was worried about Italy’s credibility owing to the never ending legal woes of Berlusconi. That Berlusconi ended up charged with having sex with an under-age prostitute – the infamous Ruby bunga bunga case – may have been the straw which broke the camel’s back and led to Napolitano considering alternatives. The only problem is that Napolitano is not supposed to interfere with the political running of Italy and if it is ever proved he did, he could end up facing impeachment charges. This is something Berlusconi’s people are probably considering at this very moment.
Impeach the President!
On the subject of impeaching Italy’s President, the Beppe Grillo run Five Star Movement did attempt to bring an action for impeachment against Napolitano, but a parliamentary committee decided there were not enough grounds for such an action to proceed.
The case has now been dropped, except a new one may be launched by irate Berlusconi supporters – if Berlusconi lets them head off down such a path. Whether he will is open to question.
With his legal problems, Berlusconi might harm his own situation by ordering an impeachment action against Napolitano. Then there is the fact that Napolitano may simply roll over and resign – he’s no spring chicken and indicated that he did not intend seeing out his full seven year term anyway. In theory, Berlusconi could attempt to force Napolitano out but he’d only do this if he thought Napolitano could be replaced with a more Berlusconi-friendly president and this, so far, does not look too likely. We’ll see.
Lifeless Letta
Aside from the irritation of the Berlusconi mob, there’s the sticky position Italy’s Prime Minister Enrico Letta now finds himself in. Almost everybody seems to think Letta is next to useless and as a result of his dawdling, Italy risks burning.
The head of Italy’s Confindustria employer’s association has as good as told Letta to pull his finger out and pass some reforms or else he’ll go speak to President Napolitano.
How long lifeless Letta can hang on is anyone’s guess but there are fears that his government may fall, or worse, that it’ll continue drifting for a few years yet to the detriment of Italy’s hobbling economy.
Recent reports by Italy’s ISTAT official statistics bureau indicated that the recovery of Italy’s industry is anaemic to say the least. Italians are suffering too with a reported 25% suffering significant financial hardship – this, of course, may explain why Italy’s consumers are not consuming.
The Pretender
Pretender to the throne of Italy, well, the position of Prime Minister, centre-left leader Matteo Renzi, though not actually in Italy’s parliament, is attempting to push though electoral law reforms presumably with the intention of sparking elections.
While Renzi believes he can win, this is not a given and wily Berlusconi is already working out how he can use the new law to his advantage and propel his party to power once more.
It’s unlikely Berlusconi will end up as prime minister seeing as he’s been banned from politics for a while after having been expelled from Italy’s parliament for his tax fraud conviction.
If the Berlusconi faction does manage to win power once more, then pulling all the strings in the background will be Berlusconi himself. It is not yet clear who would be Italy’s prime minister should this scenario become reality though Berlusconi is said to be preparing one of his family for election to Italy’s prime ministerial seat.
The Future? Stable Government, but Inept Politicians?
Therein lies another aspect of the forthcoming electoral law reform: while it may allow Italy to end up with a stable government, the quality of whatever government Italy may end up with is likely to be questionable. Sadly, Italy risks ending up with governments formed by politicians who are incapable of steering Italy in a productive direction or who are corrupt, possibly both. In other words, the electoral law reform may not help Italy at all.
Five Star Shenanigans
Also stirring up things in the wonderfully warped world of Italian politics is the Five Star Movement which has been getting itself in trouble for causing trouble in Italy’s parliament and one member of the movement is in hot water for claiming that female members of the centre-left PD party used their womanly assets to end up in positions of power. In the eyes of some voters in Italy, the Five Star Movement is too immature to be considered an alternative to Berlusconi or the PD people, though both of the old-guard factions are clearly worried that Beppe Grillo’s movement could do rather well in the event of elections.
Much more fuss about Five Star Movement antics is being made in the Berlusconi friendly and PD friendly press camps than their actions really warrant, so one suspects attempts are being made to sideline Grillo and his people. The trouble is that some Italians have realised what is going on and this may earn more votes than the mud slinging is supposed to prevent. Moreover, the actions of the old guard parties do seem to confirm Beppe Grillo’s oft repeated claim that the Berlusconi PDL now Forza Italia 2, and the Partito Democratico centre-left party are one and the same animal. There’s evidence to support Grillo’s assertions. More on this another time.
Chaotic, isn’t it? Same old, same old and Italy goes nowhere. Such a pity.
Marco says
Hi all,
Yes, as Alex correctly underlined, my mother just wanted to say, try not to become a politician or a drug seller. This to provide you a little example of how popular this.. profession could be perceived today, in Italy.
I think that we will face several major uproars in the near future. Not as in Bosnia, but probably on a huge scale, for Italian standards. And I also think that the last authorities who still have a realistic view of the country’s mood (Carabinieri, Polizia, Digos at least) are perfectly aware of this. Our politicians could play their eternal, senseless carousels, but at the Viminale the risk of desperate protests should be quite clear.
Concerning the current evolution of our political (piloted) crisis, I think it’s just a shame – we used to vote for our PMs, at least.
John Castle says
>> “Italians tend to think that’s the way things are, we have to live with it. They don’t think it can change and don’t want to, or know how to, precipitate positive change”
That rings very true from my experience Marco. And the “don’t want to” bit to me says that sometimes the politicians can be too easy a target for some.
>> “Try to avoid becoming a pusher or an assessor”.
Sorry, what do you mean by pusher and assessor?
regards
John C
Alex Roe says
Hi John – “Try to avoid becoming a pusher or an assessor” – assessor comes from ‘assessore’ which is the Italian for “councillor” in certain contexts, although “politician” would go better with the “p” in pusher 😉
“Now son, try to avoid ending up as a pusher or a politician”. – has quite a nice ring to it.
Best,
Alex
Marco says
Dear Alex,
I sadly agree with your own comment, “Italians tend to think that’s the way things are, we have to live with it. They don’t think it can change and don’t want to, or know how to, precipitate positive change. Those that can are fleeing Italy, those that can’t are trying to survive but it’s getting harder and harder.” The only possible excuse we can find is, our political class is so widely perceived as corrupted, that no wise and honest person would share anything with it. For instance, at once when I was still at school, my mother told me, “Try to avoid becoming a pusher or an assessor”.
A second reason could be the perfect way in which this same political class, the “casta”, created a self-protecting system during the last 50 years. It’s just incredible but many of the things they did, they do, are perfectly legal.
Concerning the current political mess, the main opinion I see around me is of a simple, disconsolated incredulity. At least, at once we used to vote for our PMs. But above all we are facing a terrible, long crisis, the worst since 1929. No jobs, no employment chances, no investments from abroad (why should them invest here?), eternal cuts to research and the complete lack of a energy plan. And these… “politicians” are still playing their own palace games, for a throne? They are only able to speak, to quarrel about something ethereal like reforms and electoral law. Just to block them everytime with new amendments and clashes. They are far from the real life as Earth from Jupiter. To change this system in a democratic, peaceful way, seems quite impossible. They only provide fuel to extremists.
Alex Roe says
Hi Marco,
Many in Italy know the problem – as you say, the power-mongers have created very secure ivory towers for themselves and can change laws to keep themselves out of trouble whenever they want to. The only force for change is the 5 Star Movement and it is having an effect, albeit slight, but it’s some progress against what seems to be an unassailable mob.
Ultimately, extremism may rear its ugly head and if it does, we’ll know exactly who to blame. I think some Italians are at the end of their tethers so if the government doesn’t start governing for Italy and not for itself, trouble may erupt – Napolitano has hinted at this but the elections at the start of 2013 calmed things down a little. A year down the line and little if any progress has been made, so extremists may be sharpening their knives.
As for not holding fresh elections, one suspects that the old guard caste fears that the 5 Star Movement will do well and sweep most of the away. If Renzi takes control, he may be able to regain credibility for the caste which may be why some are keen to see him in the top spot instead of Letta. Democracy appears to have been put on hold and unelected leaders the norm – possibly as a result of the caste being extremely unwilling to relinquish power to anyone who might spoil their lucrative parties.
This year will prove crucial to Italy’s future whatever that may be. Interesting, if worrying times. Financially, Italians can keep themselves above water though their children’s children may suffer if something doesn’t change.
Best,
Alex
John Castle says
Can someone please tell me what Letta has actually done in his time in power other than dare to travel abroad a bit (which Berlusconi latterly didn’t a lot I think apart from to the likes of Putin) in order to try to repair the country’s image abroad/convince foreigners that Italy was after all a serious country.
And I know different countries have different systems but, call me old fashioned, it just seems to me, er, inadvisable, er, no, a very bad idea, that Monti was not an elected member of even a two horse town, that Letta is not head of his own party (surely no surprise that this might undermine his authority?) and that Renzi is head of his party but not even in either of the houses. Folk feel free to respond to these points and tell me I’m a narrow-minded Brit.
Letta by the way is due to speak at the London School of Economics on February 25 where there have always been a lot of Italians.
It’s been rescheduled once. Might be again I suppose. Or maybe Letta will just decide not to fly back and chill out with the students.
Alex Roe says
What’s Letta done? A very good question and the answer is not a fat lot. He seems to be content to drift along in the hope that Italy’s economy will recover naturally. This is a gamble and there are no real signs that it will happen. Letta has been something of a let down.
Unelected leaders seem to be becoming the norm for Italy, but this works out very well for the old guard 😉
Cheers,
Alex
Michael Pope says
Thank you for your narrations of the complex parallel world that is Italian Politics. You have definitely helped me understand the ‘game’ more then the mainstream, opinionated Italian Press has. The worrying trend that is emerging as I speak to Italian friends, associates and acquaintances is a strong ‘but what can one person do?’ attitude. Most of these people are educated, in business, are traveled and claim to be actively interested in politics and economics. What concerns me the most, is that a majority of them claim not to vote! Their faith in the system is so shaken that a sense of hopelessness for Italy’s plight has overwhelmed the belief that their opinion matters. Where do WE go from here? We have game playing, self serving megalomaniacs
driving a bus full of disenchanted, disempowered passengers. Little wonder our youth are escaping to ‘greener pastures’ in increasing numbers.
Alex Roe says
You are welcome, Michael.
The worrying trend is not really a trend – it’s the way it is and, I feel, it always has. Italians tend to think that’s the way things are, we have to live with it. They don’t think it can change and don’t want to, or know how to, precipitate positive change. Those that can are fleeing Italy, those that can’t are trying to survive but it’s getting harder and harder.
Just what will happen in the future is hard to predict – but probably not much, knowing Italy.
Well see.
Cheers,
Alex
Lucy says
Absolutely mind-boggling! I felt a bit guilty for not staying on top of political happenings but after reading this I feel a little less to blame. Before I moved over here, I studied Promessi Sposi at university and remember my lecturer telling us how the novel reflects Italy; how it was and how it still is!
Lucy
http://www.la-lingua.blogspot.it
Pat says
Hi Alex,
Thanks for your insight into a very murky situation, Is it possible for Renzi to become prime minister even if he is not in parliament?
Pat
Alex Roe says
You are welcome, Pat.
In answer to your question, Monti was not in Italy’s parliament and became prime minister, so that means Renzi can too.
Italy seems to have ways to sideline elections if necessary.
Cheers,
Alex