The area around Modena and Mantua in Italy has been hit my many hundreds of earth tremors and several sizable earthquakes in recent weeks.
Although Italy is a seismically active country, the Modena area earthquakes have taken many by surprise because the zone was not considered to be a high risk area. Well, that has all changed now after several 5+ magnitude earthquakes, the most recent of which hit the area only last night at around 9:20pm. While the latest earthquake, 5.1 on the Richter scale, did not cause any injuries or death, it did prove to be the coup de grace for the clock tower in Novi and inflicted further damage on other buildings which had already been affected by all the recent earthquakes and tremors.
So, What’s Causing All These EarthQuakes?
Minutes before the destruction of the clock tower last night, Italian documentary series Off the Report attempted to discover just why the area has been subject to well over 400 earth tremors.
Two experts, Nicola Armaoli, Isof CNR (National Research Council for Italy) in Bologna, and Giovanni Marinelli of ARPA (Italy’s environmental protection agency) are wondering whether drilling for oil and gas in the area in which the tremors and earthquakes have occurred has provoked all the seismic activity which has so far killed a number of people and destroyed numerous buildings, including historical monuments and business premises. Official EU estimates state that the cost of rebuilding the earthquake damaged areas around Modena in Italy will be in the region of €5 billion.
Has Fracking Been Used?
While nobody seems to know for certain, there are suspicions that a technique known as ‘fracking’ may have been employed in the extraction of natural gas in the earthquake struck area.
Fracking has been known to provoke earthquakes, though usually not particularly strong ones.
Studies, in the USA and the UK, have confirmed that aspects of the fracking process can cause manmade earthquakes.
Have fracking techniques been employed in the Modena and Mantua areas of Italy? Maybe, and maybe not. Some people say not, but the scientists are not convinced.
The Off the Report investigation might cause someone to take a closer look at just what techniques are being employed to extract natural gas in Italy.
Even if fracking is not found to be to the cause of all the earthquakes, drilling in seismically unstable areas can increase the chance of earthquakes. Remember that most of Italy is seismically unstable.
Opaque Italy
Italy is not exactly the most transparent nation in the world, so whether or not fracking or drilling for oil and gas will ever be linked to the earthquakes is unlikely. If, however, all drilling and extraction in the areas in which the earthquakes occurred were to suddenly cease, then that would raise suspicions regarding the probable cause.
Actually proving that the earthquakes were manmade would be no mean feat, which means that for now Italy will have to foot most of the repair bill. Europe is to contribute around €300 million to the reconstruction works.
Tremors Continuing
The tremors in the Modena area of Italy are continuing. Generally, these tremors are in the region of 2.0 to 2.8, or so.
Experts at the INGV, Italy’s geophysical and vulcanology institute, believe the tremors will continue for the moment.
Earthquake Swarm
As a matter of interest, way back in 1570, the Ferrara area, not too far from Modena, was hit by a strong earthquake. The event claimed between 70 to 200 lives. More interestingly, perhaps, is that after the ‘big one’ the area was affected by an earthquake swarm for four years afterwards. Perhaps this is what is happening in the Modena area now?
It is well within the realms of possibility that another 5.0+ earthquake will occur in the Modena/Mantua area.
——
Image by: Mario Fornasari from Ferrara, Italy
julesdownunder says
No such thing as an unsolved mystery, just one waiting to be solved. Here’s a thought…
Fracking involves vast amounts of fluid which then has to be disposed of, and this is often done by pumping it at high pressure into ground. Drilling for oil or gas or whatever produces drilling mud, which is sometimes disposed of in the same manner. The reigning theory, as I understand it, is that its the disposal of ANY FLUID (whether its fracking fluid or drilling mud) into a FAULT LINE that triggers the earthquakes.
Fracking fluid contains a nasty cocktail of chemicals, which means it can’t be disposed of wherever, and the costs of disposal are very high. As a result, it more often get pumped into the ground, and more therefore more often triggers earthquakes which have consequently associated with fracking. But its the pumping of fluid into the ground, not the fracking per se, that is said to be causing the earthquakes.
To cut a long story short, what I’m saying is that based on the latest theory, it may not even be relevant whether there’s ever been any fracking in Italy or not. If there’s been drilling for oil or whatever, then drilling mud would have been produced and would have to be disposed of. The all important question then would be HAS ANYONE PUMPED FLUID OR ANY SORT INTO THE GROUND, AND IF SO, WAS IT INTO A FAULT LINE?
Diana says
Hi Alex
I too saw the ‘Off the Report’ program – extremely discsoncerting, especially for those who live in that area.
I am convinced that ‘no smoke without fire’ still holds true but that, as these facts relate to italy, we will never know the truth behind them.
If it were ever to be confirmed that fracking is the cause of this tragedy, would that then alter who has to fork out and pay the bill for all the lives lost and the damage (not only structural but economic) too?
I fear that this will just be something else that will be added to the long list of Italian misteries that will ahimè never be resolved.
Diana
Alex Roe says
Hi Diana,
As you may have noticed from Off the Report, oil and gas exploration in the area has the support of an Italian senator and these people hate to be made to look bad.
If it is confirmed that fracking was used, and it can be proved that it provoked the earthquakes, then, theoretically, damages could be claimed from the drilling companies, who will, one hopes, be insured. It is a very big ‘if’ though – proving the connection will not be at all easy and I’m not sure anyone will even bother attempting to do so.
I suspect you are right – this may well be destined to be one of those Italian mysteries which will never be resolved. Even so, if the companies stop drilling, or if they are ordered to do so, this may indicate that something is not right.
We shall see.
Best,
Alex
paciscor says
AFAIK no fracking has ever been used in the area. There were some drillings but neither Gas stockage has been implemented.
From what I’v read so far, under Modena area below the alluvial plain there is a part of the Appennini trying to emerge. In fact the italian boot is a spring between the european and the african plate, and is being pushed both from south and from north.
If you look at history, there was a very similar eventi in the 16th century. And going further back one realizes that every couple of hundred years there is a major quake in the area.
So indeed it seems we had the dubious privilege to withness one such event: we lucky few… Interesting times indeed, isn’t it?
Ciao
Alex Roe says
Hi Paciscor,
I, too, have heard that, officially, no fracking has taken place – but the scientific types interviewed on Off the Report appeared to be suspicious.
I also heard that the Apennines are still ‘growing’ and know about the African plate thing too. I had read about the 16th century quake as well.
Maybe the activity is purely ‘normal’, then again, maybe somebody has accelerated the process by doing things they should not have.
Whether we shall ever know the truth, I have no idea. Let’s see if they stop the drilling in the area 😉
Yes, interesting times.
Ciao,
Alex
walter says
Hi Paciscor, I believe that you are living in Italy, I am in New Zealand and working on an unpaid research project on fracking & earthqukes . The ground on which I live here in Hawke’sBay is highly activ and oil companies are starting with drilling. We had last month (May 2013) 193 earthquakes. Last year 2053,six greater than 4 on the Richter scale. I would like to get similar data from the region of Modena, where the fracking methode may me used .
Can you help me with a name of an official institution,which is monitoring earthquakes.
thanks Walter
paciscor says
Hi walter
You can try starting from here http://www.ingv.it/it/ this is the national institute on geophisyc and vulcanology.
Other institution you might try to knock at the door of of is ENEA http://www.enea.it/it
Good luck!