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Italy Elections 2013 – Exit Poll Results and Forecasts

An Election Poster in Italy

Elections 2013: 23:38 – Only a few more votes to come in and it’s looking as if Berlusconi’s coalition might just overtake Bersani’s center-left coalition in Italy’s lower house. Regardless of the end result, Italy is not going to end up with a stable government. Europe and the world are shuddering.

Count nearly over. It’s looking as if, numerically at least, Italy’s center-left may have earned itself the most votes, but Berlusconi’s coalition is not too far behind. In terms of pure vote numbers, Beppe Grillo’s 5 Star Movement did better than Silvio Berlusconi’s PdL party, if coalition votes are not counted.

21:41 – Up to now, even if Berlusconi manages to overtake  the Center-left in both houses, which is unlikely, the resulting government, whether center-left or center-right, will not have a working majority – unless it joins forces with Beppe Grillo, which is also unlikely or if Berlusconi should form an alliance with the commies – also very, very, very unlikely.

20:53 – on the basis of votes counted so far, it’s looking as if Berlusconi could actually win these elections. His PdL coalition is closing the gap on Bersani PD center-left alliance. If Berlusconi wins, financial markets in Italy and elsewhere will crash tomorrow.

19:19 – Center-right is gaining on center-left in Italy’s Senate, but center-left may scrape majority and prevent Italy from having to return to the polling stations once again in 2013. A good number of votes still has to be counted though, so result could go either way.

19:16 – In terms of votes, Beppe Grillo’s party has the most so far – 26.3%, then center-left PD 24.6% and Berlusconi PdL 21.2%.

19:00 – Projections still showing no clear majority for center-left in Italy’s Senate and no likely alliance which could break the deadlock.

18:20 – Beppe Grillo’s 5 Star movement has received more votes than Berlusconi’s PdL party. Result in Senate still uncertain, but forecasts still indicate Berlusconi coalition may win enough seats to cause instability.

17:43 – Initial results and predictions showing Berlusconi coalition may end up with more seats in Italy’s senate than center-left coalition. Potential problem for the governability of Italy could be solved by Bersani PD and Monti alliance.

17:07 – Beppe Grillo’s party may be the single party, as opposed to a coalition, with the most votes in Italy’s senate according to RAI forecasts so far.

16:53 – It’s looking as Italy’s center-left may have an advantage – but it’s still too early to be sure.

Some forecasts are showing that Beppe Grillo’s 5 Star movement may win more votes in Italy’s senate in the Sicily region than Berlusconi’s PdL party.

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Off topic, but shares in Berlusconi’s Mediaset media group seem to be rocketing – 10%+ gain in value.

Initial instant exit poll results for Italy’s lower house give Italy’s center-left the majority (c. 34%), with the Berlusconi right (c. 29%) not too far behind and Beppe Grillo in third place with around 20% of the vote – info also via @ItalianPolitics on Twitter.

Tecné instant poll results for Sky Italy for Italy’s lower house:

Bersani –  center-left 34.5% – Berlusconi right 29% – Grillo 5 Star movement 19% – Matio Monti 9.5% – Antonio Ingroia 3.5%

In Italy’s upper house, Italy’s center-left may have earned 37% of the votes, Grillo around 16% and Berlusconi 31%, post vote instant polls indicate.

Piepoli Instant poll used by Italy’s national public TV service RAI:

Lower house: Center-left PD 31-33%, Berlusconi right PdL 21-23%, and Beppe Grillo M5S 19-21%

RAI instant poll for Italy’s upper house – the Senate: center-left wins everywhere in Italy but in Friuli and Venice regions. Neck and neck in Lombardy region.

Note that instant poll data is not necessarily reliable.

2013 Italian Election turnout:  73.43%  (80.82% in 2008) – partial information, not yet definitive.

Of those who voted, initial exit polls suggest 3 Italians in every 10 – of those who actually voted, fell for Berlusconi’s promises.

Lombardy Region elections result instant poll: Roberto Maroni and Umberto Ambrosoli are running neck and neck for role of next governor of Lombardy region of Italy.


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