The results of Italy’s local elections, especially in Milan, indicate that instincts like gut feelings are to be trusted.
Lo and behold, in the first round of local elections in Milan, elections which were being used by Silvio Berlusconi as a form of referendum on his leadership, the Berlusconi party candidate and outgoing mayor Letizia Moratti lost to centre-left candidate Giuliano Pisapia.
I wrote this a few days before Italy’s local elections:
“My gut feeling is that support for Silvio Berlusconi in Italy seems to be waning…”
Pisapia got just over 48% of votes in Milan, while Moratti, who attempted to sling mud at Pisapia at the last minute, received 41.6% of the votes. Moratti had a campaign budget of between 10 and 20 million Euros, whereas Pisapia only had around 1.5 million Euros at his disposal and did not have the backing of Italy’s billionaire prime minister Berlusconi.
Berlusconi himself wanted to obtain around 52,000 preference votes in order to vindicate his leadership. In the event, he ended up with around 28,000 votes. He got 53,000 preference votes in Milan’s last elections. This fall in preference votes represents a personal blow to Berlusconi who lent full his weight to the Moratti campaign in Milan.
How did Pisapia beat the media controlling might of Berlusconi? Time for another quote from a previous article on Pisapia:
“Pisapia’s campaign is more grass-roots – he’s literally closer to the people on the ground.
Then there is the difference in characters between the two protagonists – Moratti, I was told by someone who has met her on a few occasions, comes across as being nice but bland – almost as soulless as her campaign. She did not bother to turn up for council meetings too often – which may reflect how much she actually cares for Milan.”
So, despite the mega-bucks Moratti budget, Pisapia got out on the streets and got more votes as a result.
Looks as if Pisapia is rather better at managing resources than Moratti, now doesn’t it? A good quality for the potential mayor of a major city like Milan.
More interestingly though; note that I’m not using the word ‘victory’ yet, as it isn’t; Pisapia’s achievement demonstrates that getting out and about, the ‘kissing babies’ campaign style; works better than slapping soulless ads all over taxis, billboards and the internet. It also helps if one is not associated with a person who is facing allegations of encouraging the prostitution of a minor and abuse of his power.
Round One to the Centre-Left in Milan
It’s not over though. Seeing as Pisapia did not manage to obtain 50% of the votes plus one, he cannot take his place as Milan’s new mayor. However, Pisapia must take heart from the fact that the whole of Milan voted in his favour – not one of Milan’s nine voting districts chose Pisapia’s opponent Letizia Moratti.
Now, what will happen is that a ballot will take place in 15 days time. The winner of this ballot will become the new mayor of Milan. Pisapia is confident, Moratti is not, and I’m expecting more mud to be slung.
An undoubtedly significant battle has been won by Italy’s centre-left in traditionally right-wing Milan – but there is one more to go and the Berlusconi crowd will now pull out all the stops in an attempt to save the face of their leader.
Expect devious tactics supported by large globs of mud over the next 15 days on the run up to the Milan ballot.
Regardless of how things go in 15 days time, Berlusconi has been dealt a belly blow in his home town, of all places. It looks as if Italy’s showman should give some serious thought to leaving the limelight – once and for all.
Further reading: Humble Pie for Berlusconi over on professor of political science, James Walston’s blog.
Silvia says
hey!
I see the events in Milan as a vote of punishment against Silvio, not
so much against lady Moratti herself.. maybe Pisapia will be a better mayor but Moratti as a person and as a human being is ten time more decent
than Silvio Berlusconi.
When she went aginst Pisapia in the last day of the campaign she was trying to be a little Silvio wannabe: insult your political opponent and don’t talk about the real problems of the city.. I heard her speak in public and usually she is a lady in the true sense of the word.. she is not a Daniela Santanchè.. The vote was not pro Pisapia but against Berlusconi, and i think that this fact fact sholud be underlined.
Berlusconi is being punished by certain parts of his electorate; in particular:
1. the people who until 1993 circa voted for the Christian Democrats ( dear old DC ..),
catholic people who, differently from the Vatican, won’t allow an immoral private life of the premier;
2. a lot of women for the same reason ( mistresses living in the infamous Via dell’Olgettina. were the final and most outrageous scandal ..) .
When I say that the vote is anti Silvio I want to suggest that with a good candidate ( Giulio Tremonti above all ), the italian right can still win the next political elections –
probably they will be before 2013, the natural end of the term- .
The Italian left can party now, but they have won a battle, not the war.
Ciao, silvia
Heath says
hey Alex, what an interesting couple of days in Milan.
EVeryone i have spoken to is very surprised by the result, of whom many voted for Pisapia.
And what about Beppe Grillo’s 5 Stelle result?? Will those few percent go to Pisapia? Will also be interesting to see where the Lega supporters put their vote.
So we are in limbo for 2 weeks…
keep it real and thanks for your great blog
Alex Roe says
Hi Heath,
Yes, a very interesting couple of days indeed. I know many are surprised, but while leaning towards the left goes against the grain in Milan, things are not going to well in the city and from the results, it looks as if more than a few of Milan’s population are unhappy.
Red with rage, one might say, and they left the right red-faced in embarrassment. Berlusconi seriously under estimated just how unhappy people are. This is a surprise in some respects because he’s usually driven by marketing. He may, at a guess, have decided to ignore the warning signs and resort to his usual tactics – slagging off the left, the judiciary and anyone who opposes him – but it did not work – the halving of the preference votes for B personally demonstrated that.
Yes, two weeks of limbo – we’ll see whether the city will go right once more, but…
We’ll see 😉
Take care,
Alex
Patrick Riceci says
Nice call on the Milan mayoral race.
Although not related to the Milan election, can you tell me if every region, province and municipality held local elections yesterday? I am specifically interested in Le Marche, the province of Pesaro-Urbino and the city of Pesaro. Il Resto del Carlino shows no results from Le Marche.
Grazie.
Pat (a different one)
Alex Roe says
Hi different Pat,
No, not every region and province went to the polls yesterday. If you click on the link below and go exploring, you’ll find out where in Italy elections were held. Some 13 million Italians voted.
You’ll find the Pesaro and Urbino district results here, but Pesaro itself is not shown, so elections where not held there: http://comunali2011.interno.it/amm110515/seleC059.htm
Elections were held in Pesaro on 7th June 2009 and PD got in.
Best,
Alex
Pat says
Hi Alex,
Thanks for the election analysis. Good prediction on the Milan results. Can you tell me: what is a preference vote? Does it have any legal meaning,or is it like a public opinion poll?
Pat
Alex Roe says
Hi Pat,
Glad you found the analysis interesting.
The preference vote thing is not easy to explain – it’s to do with proportional representation. You can select a party and a candidate on that party’s list of members.
It does have a legal significance in that the person with the most preference votes is the person who will be elected. But, if you simply vote for a party – and do not specify a preference, then the person who is at the top of the list will get elected.
Politicians can be appointed solely because they are on a list – and the list does not seem to be created democratically – which is how one of Berlusca’s lawyers ended up as an MP.
I think I’ve explained it OK, but would be happy to be corrected!
Ciao,
Alex